Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 19.266692 20.933976 22.773084 24.970948 27.551654 30.518919 34.238831
2024-10-27 17.299554 19.624204 22.392562 26.008326 30.730181 36.885195 45.897145
2024-11-03 15.433027 18.018716 21.264593 25.788234 32.209051 41.526427 57.357616
2024-11-10 14.176996 16.930803 20.536918 25.843734 33.955159 47.002029 73.017047
2024-11-17 13.251929 16.121818 20.014662 26.019945 35.840046 53.314035 94.925027
2024-11-24 12.495435 15.434897 19.541167 26.138777 37.606525 60.114840 125.407014
2024-12-01 11.769710 14.708069 18.906935 25.874243 38.609311 65.857806 162.445063
2024-12-08 11.223841 14.180245 18.497215 25.889371 40.106561 73.493073 226.176426
2024-12-15 10.693702 13.627951 17.987189 25.645693 41.021247 80.274706 317.208410
2024-12-22 10.225109 13.129369 17.509911 25.384219 41.829710 87.379077 473.153080
2024-12-29 9.819205 12.695227 17.094012 25.172237 42.695698 95.429212 804.008270
2025-01-05 9.467425 12.319423 16.739021 25.023288 43.675298 104.876328 1833.466658
2025-01-12 9.059365 11.840123 16.188117 24.454466 43.563307 110.450467 5531.778401
2025-01-19 8.958194 11.828679 16.413054 25.430992 47.688552 140.486636 NaN
2025-01-26 8.663578 11.496090 16.066357 25.208647 48.539485 155.869031 NaN
2025-02-02 8.435572 11.256689 15.862442 25.257550 50.210296 180.619281 NaN
2025-02-09 8.242668 11.062764 15.722947 25.425090 52.323964 215.936026 NaN
2025-02-16 8.055640 10.868326 15.567885 25.538514 54.336702 260.308803 NaN
2025-02-23 7.830610 10.601159 15.264320 25.283740 55.048093 295.912342 NaN
2025-03-02 7.656489 10.409957 15.086973 25.298133 56.754814 360.938808 NaN
2025-03-09 7.461154 10.175256 14.815541 25.063666 57.489431 420.892866 NaN
2025-03-16 7.275396 9.949307 14.548049 24.812055 58.108873 493.316944 NaN
2025-03-23 7.106172 9.744752 14.309829 24.608031 58.886594 594.766786 NaN